Dubai property prices decline to 7-year low as transaction volumes approach record high

Property Monitor
  • Property Monitor Dynamic Price Index for November shows a MoM change of -1.35% and a YoY change of -11.63% in property values
  • Index price suggests that values are now less than AED 900 per square foot
  • 5,025 sales recorded in November with Oqood registrations representing 60.8%

Property prices in Dubai fell to AED 895 per sq ft on average in November, shows the Dynamic Price Index (DPI) from Property Monitor, the UAE’s only data platform backed by property professionals accredited by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS). The DPI is a new real estate market index family covering property price movement in Dubai across 42 geographic communities and is indexed to a base period of January 2008.

At an emirate-wide level, the index value for November 2019 decreased to 124.9 from 126.6, representing a monthly change in prices of -1.35% and a yearly change of -11.63%. Property values are now at their lowest point in seven years, with these levels last seen in December 2012. Whilst prices are down 27.5% from the September 2014 peak, they remain above the previous market low of April 2009.

Whilst property prices have declined the volume of sales transactions has risen, with November 2019 marking one of the strongest months for sales in the past decade. A total of 5,025 transactions were recorded with off-plan (Oqood) registrations representing 60.8% (also notably higher than the year-to-date monthly average of 55.4%).

Speaking on the findings Zhann Jochinke, Chief Operating Officer, Property Monitor said, “The inverse relationship between property values and the volume of transactions is a natural economic occurrence, partly driven by increased real estate supply. However, whilst property values might be at multi-year lows, the higher transactions reflect buyers’ long-term confidence in the Dubai property sector. The increased availability of affordable properties for a larger segment of the audience is certainly a positive, but developers must readjust earlier expectations of potential returns.”

Property Monitor’s next-generation family of indices leverages a vast pool of historical datasets, proprietary algorithms and machine learning to most accurately capture the underlying trend in property values.  As a unique feature, the DPI dynamically repopulates by incorporating any new datapoint or dataset that becomes available, overcoming any historical inaccuracies or misrepresentation of values and trends.

The new indices naturally replace the previous generation of Property Monitor price movement and indexation productswhich were compiled in collaboration with leading property consultancy and chartered surveying firm Cavendish Maxwell.

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